Recent Polls
Electorates
| Electorate | 2023 Margin (votes) | 2023 Margin (%) | Party | Incumbent MP | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mt Albert | 20 | 0.1 | Labour | Helen White | General |
| Nelson | 29 | 0.1 | Labour | Rachel Boyack | General |
| Te Atatū | 131 | 0.4 | Labour | Phil Twyford | General |
| Banks Peninsula | 396 | 0.8 | National | Vanessa Weenink | General |
| New Lynn | 1,013 | 2.5 | National | Paulo Garcia | General |
| West Coast-Tasman | 1,017 | 2.4 | National | Maureen Pugh | General |
| Wigram | 1,187 | 3.2 | Labour | Megan Woods | General |
| Ōhāriu | 1,260 | 3.0 | Labour | Greg O'Connor | General |
| Hutt South | 1,332 | 3.1 | National | Chris Bishop | General |
| Taieri | 1,443 | 3.4 | Labour | Ingrid Leary | General |
| Mt Roskill | 1,565 | 4.3 | National | Carlos Cheung | General |
| Christchurch Central | 1,981 | 5.1 | Labour | Duncan Webb | General |
| Christchurch East | 2,397 | 6.2 | Labour | Reuben Davidson | General |
| Rongotai | 2,717 | 6.4 | Green | Julie Anne Genter | General |
| Wairarapa | 2,816 | 6.3 | National | Mike Butterick | General |
| Palmerston North | 3,087 | 8.7 | Labour | Tangi Utikere | General |
| East Coast | 3,117 | 7.9 | National | Dana Kirkpatrick | General |
| Auckland Central | 3,896 | 11.2 | Green | Chlöe Swarbrick | General |
| Tāmaki | 4,158 | 10.1 | ACT | Brooke van Velden | General |
| Kelston | 4,396 | 13.3 | Labour | Carmel Sepuloni | General |
| Maungakiekie | 4,617 | 13.0 | National | Greg Fleming | General |
| Hamilton East | 5,060 | 13.5 | National | Ryan Hamilton | General |
| Whanganui | 5,417 | 13.8 | National | Carl Bates | General |
| Wellington Central | 6,066 | 13.3 | Green | Tamatha Paul | General |
| Northland | 6,087 | 13.3 | National | Grant McCallum | General |
| Ōtaki | 6,271 | 14.2 | National | Tim Costley | General |
| Hamilton West | 6,488 | 17.0 | National | Tama Potaka | General |
| New Plymouth | 6,991 | 16.3 | National | David MacLeod | General |
| Manurewa | 7,113 | 24.5 | Labour | Arena Williams | General |
| Mana | 7,372 | 17.7 | Labour | Barbara Edmonds | General |
| Ilam | 7,830 | 18.4 | National | Hamish Campbell | General |
| Panmure-Ōtāhuhu | 7,970 | 26.8 | Labour | Jenny Salesa | General |
| Dunedin | 7,980 | 18.9 | Labour | Rachel Brooking | General |
| Epsom | 8,142 | 20.3 | ACT | David Seymour | General |
| Takanini | 8,775 | 22.4 | National | Rima Nakhle | General |
| Remutaka | 8,859 | 21.2 | Labour | Chris Hipkins | General |
| Napier | 8,870 | 22.0 | National | Katie Nimon | General |
| Rotorua | 8,923 | 24.4 | National | Todd McClay | General |
| Northcote | 9,270 | 24.2 | National | Dan Bidois | General |
| Tauranga | 9,370 | 22.6 | National | Sam Uffindell | General |
| Rangitīkei | 9,785 | 23.9 | National | Suze Redmayne | General |
| Invercargill | 9,874 | 26.4 | National | Penny Simmonds | General |
| Tukituki | 10,118 | 24.6 | National | Catherine Wedd | General |
| Rangitata | 10,846 | 26.8 | National | James Meager | General |
| Upper Harbour | 11,192 | 27.5 | National | Cameron Brewer | General |
| Kaikōura | 11,412 | 27.2 | National | Stuart Smith | General |
| Whangārei | 11,424 | 26.5 | National | Shane Reti | General |
| Māngere | 11,700 | 40.3 | Labour | Lemauga Lydia Sosene | General |
| Waitaki | 12,151 | 27.5 | National | Miles Anderon | General |
| Waimakariri | 13,010 | 28.0 | National | Matt Doocey | General |
| Papakura | 13,459 | 32.3 | National | Judith Collins | General |
| Taranaki-King Country | 14,355 | 35.4 | National | Barbara Kuriger | General |
| Bay of Plenty | 15,405 | 34.1 | National | Tom Rutherford | General |
| North Shore | 16,330 | 39.9 | National | Simon Watts | General |
| Botany | 16,337 | 43.9 | National | Christopher Luxon | General |
| Taupō | 16,505 | 37.9 | National | Louise Upston | General |
| Coromandel | 17,014 | 36.4 | National | Scott Simpson | General |
| Southland | 17,211 | 43.6 | National | Joseph Mooney | General |
| Waikato | 18,046 | 42.4 | National | Tim van de Molen | General |
| Pakuranga | 18,710 | 51.2 | National | Simeon Brown | General |
| Port Waikato | 19,443 | 47.8 | National | Andrew Bayly | General |
| Kaipara ki Mahurangi | 19,459 | 39.6 | National | Chris Penk | General |
| Selwyn | 19,782 | 41.1 | National | Nicola Grigg | General |
| East Coast Bays | 20,353 | 52.6 | National | Erica Stanford | General |
| Whangaparāoa | 23,376 | 50.0 | National | Mark Mitchell | General |
| Tāmaki Makaurau | 4 | 0.0 | Maori Party | Takutai Moana Kemp | Maori |
| Te Tai Tokerau | 517 | 1.9 | Maori Party | Mariameno Kapa-Kingi | Maori |
| Te Tai Tonga | 2,824 | 10.3 | Maori Party | Tākuta Ferris | Maori |
| Ikaroa-Rāwhiti | 2,843 | 10.9 | Labour | Cushla Tangaere-Manuel | Maori |
| Hauraki-Waikato | 2,911 | 11.6 | Maori Party | Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke | Maori |
| Te Tai Hauāuru | 9,222 | 35.2 | Maori Party | Debbie Ngarewa-Packer | Maori |
| Waiariki | 15,891 | 54.9 | Maori Party | Rawiri Waititi | Maori |