When I built this site my intention was to allow people to simulate what the results of elections would be – not only how each party would do and who might be able to form Government, but also exactly which MPs and candidates would get elected if there was an election tomorrow.
In the late stages of an election campaign, that becomes fairly easy, I simply need to input the party lists and electorate candidates, and the maths does the rest.
However, in the stage of the electoral cycle we’re in, things are a bit more complex. MPs have begun leaving the the new Parliament and some have indicated they won’t stand again.
In the case of NZ Labour in late 2023 and early 2024 there has been a lot of movement, not only have there been several significant resignations, but with the latest reshuffle the party now has a new caucus rankings, most noticeably with Barbara Edmonds rising from 18 to 4.
So I thought I’d spell out the logic behind how I keep my party lists up to date…
- When MPs resign from Parliament (or indicate they are about to), they are removed from the party list, and as their party’s expected candidate for their electorate. If an unsuccessful candidate indicated they wouldn’t run, they would also be removed (please let me know if you’re aware of any!)
- Then I update the party list order to match the current caucus rankings for MPs that are on the list.
- And then the rest of the list is updated to be “next up” on the party list, in the rankings they were at for the previous election.
- Between elections, the major parties often leave their backbench “unranked”, if that’s the case and they’re listed in alphabetical order, I’ll put them in the order they were on the list at the previous election, as that’s a better way of indicating how that person will be ranked than the order of their surname!
- And when the parties release their lists and electorate candidates in the lead up to the next election, it all gets reset again!
Over the course of the Parliament I’ll be keeping these up to date. If you’re aware of anything I’ve missed, please let me know.